Toronto Condos Now Trade at Three Prices, and the Gaps Show Who Holds the Leverage

"Two straight quarters of higher sales show that buyers will step in at the right price," Urbanation president Shaun Hildebrand said in October. The Globe and Mail quoted him in its coverage of the firm's third-quarter survey.

In Toronto's condo market this fall, the price a buyer pays depends on how they can close. Bulk investors, individual buyers of new units and resale buyers are each paying a different price per square foot.

The pressure shows up first at closing. The Globe reported that many pre-construction buyers who signed near the market peak have been unable to close because their lender will not provide a mortgage at the original purchase price. Some of the individual investors who did close are losing money. They either cannot find tenants, or the rent does not cover the mortgage, condo fees and other property costs. Those units do not disappear. They end up as unsold inventory or resale listings, and someone else gets to set the price.

Three prices for comparable condos in Q3 2026

Urbanation's Q3-2026 Condominium Market Survey, released October 19, puts numbers on the split across the Greater Toronto Hamilton Area. It shows three broad prices: bulk, resale and individual new. Resale differs by location, and new units have both an asking price and a closing price.

In Q3, six bulk buyers bought 339 units, according to the Globe. That was 45% of the 760 new condo sales in the region. Their $763 per square foot was an average discount of 40% from the original selling prices in the same buildings. The Globe gives the individual-buyer average as $1,033 per square foot. Urbanation's slightly higher figure of $1,045 leaves out bulk and luxury deals.

One deal shows the pattern clearly. High Art Capital, an Ontario government-backed fund that is converting some of its units into affordable rentals, paid $22.3 million for 43 units in a midtown Toronto building called Line 5. That works out to about $518,000 per unit. The Globe noted this is close to the typical resale condo price in the region, which is unusual because new condos normally sell at a significant premium to resale.

The fund got that price by buying dozens of finished units at once, all ready to close. Developers holding completed stock are paying for speed and certainty, and that is the leverage these buyers hold.

The HST rebate decides who can use that leverage

The second price gap comes from tax policy. Ontario's temporary enhanced HST relief on new homes is often described as worth up to $130,000. According to the Canada Revenue Agency, the figure is two parts. The first is up to $80,000 of the provincial 8% portion of HST. The second is up to $50,000 through the Ontario New Home Affordability Payment, which Ontario pays as an amount equal to the federal 5% portion.

Four details from the official pages matter most for condo buyers:

• Buyer type. The owner-occupier rebate is open to eligible buyers whether or not they are first-time buyers. The buyer or a relation has to be the first occupant. CRA's eligibility page sets out the conditions.
• Agreement window. For a purchase from a builder, the agreement must be signed between April 1, 2026 and March 31, 2027. Construction may have started earlier, so a completed unit that has not yet sold is not ruled out just because it is already built. CRA Notice 346 lays out the timing rules.
• Assignments. Both the original builder agreement and the assignment agreement must fall inside that same window.
• Rental purchasers. Investors use a separate rental rebate, and the unit must be substantially complete by December 31, 2029. CRA's rental rebate page has the details.

Urbanation spells out what that last deadline does. New high-rise projects usually take four to five years to build, so most cannot meet a 2029 completion date. In practice, that leaves pre-construction investors out of the enhanced rebate. The rules favor two kinds of buyer, the owner-occupier and the investor buying finished units. Pre-construction sales across the GTHA fell to 60 units in Q3, a 61% drop from a year earlier and the 12th straight quarter of annual declines.

Headline prices also hide the rebate. BILD's September benchmark price for new GTA condos was $1.03 million, unchanged from a year earlier, and it is a gross figure that does not account for the HST rebate, as the Toronto Star reported. For a qualifying owner-occupier, the real cost of a new condo can sit well below the benchmark.

This is general information, not legal, tax or financial advice. Eligibility depends on details like price, timing and occupancy, so please confirm your own situation with a lawyer or accountant before you sign.

The core is discounting at about a third of the suburban rate

The bulk-deal discounts make headlines, but they come from completed new inventory across the whole region. Resale prices tell a different story depending on where you look. In Q3 2026, average resale condo prices in the former City of Toronto fell 2.8% from a year earlier to $905 per square foot. Prices fell 7.9% in the outer 416 and 9.3% in the 905.

Supply explains most of the difference. Over the past 12 months, the former City of Toronto had the fewest new condo completions of any region, at 6,884 units, down 30% from a year earlier. Fewer new towers finishing means fewer investors forced to sell or lease at the same moment, so there is less pressure on nearby resale prices.

TRREB's September 2026 figures for the City of Toronto as a whole show a slower market that is still moving. There were 884 condo apartment sales, 3,073 new listings and 5,329 active listings, with an average price of $640,248 and listings taking an average of 40 days to sell. Dividing active listings by monthly sales gives about six months of inventory, which gives buyers time and some room to negotiate. The MLS HPI benchmark for City of Toronto condo apartments was $543,800 in September, down 6.36% from a year earlier. The benchmark is adjusted for property features, so it measures something different from the average sale price.

The city-wide figure includes the outer 416, where prices are falling fastest. A buyer who uses the 6% decline to anchor an offer on a downtown unit may be relying on discounts that mostly happened somewhere else.

The funds are paying for future scarcity

The funds have not said publicly what they expect. Our reading of Urbanation's supply figures is that buying finished units now positions them for a period when far fewer new units will reach the rental market.

Scheduled GTHA condo completions total 20,868 units in 2026. They drop to 15,825 in 2027, 12,065 in 2028 and 4,213 in 2029. Only 381 units started construction in Q3, all in a single project, and starts for the first three quarters of 2026 were 82% below the 10-year average.

The rental market has already started to respond. Urbanation's Q3 rental report, released October 27, shows active condo rental listings down 25% from a year earlier and down 43% from their peak. Average condo rents rose 2.4% from Q2 to $3.83 per square foot. In the former City of Toronto, condo rents rose 0.7% from a year earlier, the first annual increase in the core since early 2024. The share of purpose-built rental projects offering incentives fell from 67% to 60%, and one free month replaced two as the most common offer.

"The recovery in rents will gain momentum as overall rental supply declines," Hildebrand said in Urbanation's release. At $763 per square foot, the funds are buying finished units ahead of the years when completions are scheduled to drop.

Putting the three prices to work on an offer

For a buyer comparing condos across the city this fall, the three prices become a few practical questions.

1. Which price applies to this unit? For a completed new unit still held by the developer, the asking price was averaging $1,157 per square foot in Q3. Individual buyers closed at around $1,045. The difference between those two numbers is room to negotiate.
2. Does the rebate timing work? Owner-occupier agreements have to be signed by March 31, 2027. That date is about five months away, and an assignment has to fit both of its agreements inside the window.
3. Which resale comparables apply? Downtown resale prices are falling much more slowly than suburban ones, so a comparable from the outer 416 can understate value in the core.
4. For investors, do the carrying costs work? The Q3 GTHA average condo rent was $2,604 for 681 square feet. That is the figure to test against your mortgage, condo fees and other costs before relying on future rent increases.

FAQ

Do I need to be a first-time buyer to get the enhanced Ontario rebate? No. The owner-occupier rebate is open to eligible buyers whether or not they have owned a home before. The separate federal first-time buyer GST/HST rebate is limited to first-time buyers, and CRA explains how the two interact.

Is the March 2027 deadline likely to be extended? As of late October 2026, the current CRA and Ontario program pages still show March 31, 2027 as the end of the agreement window.

Are new condo sales recovering? New sales are rising from a very low base. Urbanation counted 760 new condo sales in Q3, double the year before but still 78% below the 10-year average for a third quarter. Altus Group and BILD counted just under 130 GTA new condo sales in September, a record low for the month.

If you are weighing a completed new unit against a resale condo, or checking whether the rebate timing fits your purchase, Appugliesi Real Estate Group can help. We'll work through the per-square-foot comparisons for the buildings on your list and help you shape an offer around the price that actually applies to you. Schedule a Consultation.